Analysis of the Structural Development of Production and Consumption for Wheat, Rice and Cotton in the Arab Republic of Egypt
The study presents an analysis of the structural evolution of wheat, rice, and cotton production and consumption in the Arab Republic of Egypt, providing a quantitative and temporal analysis of agricultural trends in Egypt during the period 1952–1971, with future projections until 1990. The study ai...
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| Natura: | Libro |
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INP
2025
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| Accesso online: | https://repository.inp.ed.eg/handle/123456789/6281 |
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| Riassunto: | The study presents an analysis of the structural evolution of wheat, rice, and cotton production and consumption in the Arab Republic of Egypt, providing a quantitative and temporal analysis of agricultural trends in Egypt during the period 1952–1971, with future projections until 1990. The study aims to assess the gap between production and consumption and outline the agricultural and trade policies required to ensure food security and promote exports. Methodologically, the study employs time-series analysis of cultivated areas, productivity, and total output, regression models for demand estimation, Engel curves for expenditure elasticity in urban and rural areas, and demand functions for price and income elasticities, complemented by international comparisons with the US, USSR, and Hungary.
Findings reveal that wheat output increased by 59% due to higher yields, but consumption nearly doubled, creating an expanding import gap expected to reach 5.3 million tons by 1990. Rice production surged by 390%, making Egypt a net exporter, though rising domestic demand is likely to constrain export volumes. Cotton remained Egypt’s leading export commodity, accounting for 72% of total exports, with production increasing by 14% despite reduced cultivation area, and projections indicate continued growth through 1990.
Key challenges include rapid population growth, limited arable land and water resources, growing wheat import dependency, international price volatility, and the need for modern irrigation and agricultural technologies. Accordingly, the study recommends boosting productivity through improved inputs, rationalizing water use with advanced irrigation systems, expanding horizontal cultivation via land reclamation, diversifying exports through cotton-based industries, and fostering regional and international cooperation.
From a planning and development perspective, this study highlights the necessity of aligning agricultural and trade policies with strategic planning to achieve food security, economic sustainability, and resilience against demographic and global market pressures |
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